Thought you may want to know...

There is no doubt in my mind that mobile services and applications will mushroom in the next five years, thanks to Apple and Google.  Combine that with the rapidly changing market for content and entertainment, and you are likely to see new winners.  Like many of you, I like Apple, but also think Google, and in the long term Amazon, have the opportunity to be major players in this market, too.  Social Networking is getting big and bigger, but if I had to choose, I would choose mobile and entertainment over everything else, including social networking.  We are moving towards services and applications and away from traditional platforms.  That’s why Google is frantically offering new services, and also why I think there are limits and...

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I believe that we are likely to see weak but sustained overall growth in global economy into 2011. Equities are not oversold, especially given the potential for 2H10 and 2011 downward estimate revision, but recent corrections, post May 6, have priced in a significant amount of growth slowdown.  As such, I expect some possible downward movement, but not another major correction.  I do expect key Internet names, as well as certain China sectors to outperform the market and produce absolute positive returns, driven in part by a shift in relative multiple expansion.  After the quick jolt of 1H10, we are now entering the more prolonged and slower phase of recovery and investors are likely to focus on companies that will benefit from the longer term trends, not just...

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An Update – I have been remiss to post more, and the not-so-subtle comments from many of my friends in conjunction with my own guilty conscience have finally forced me to change. While I don’t promise to blog on a regular basis, I intend to write very short pieces on selective areas, more frequently. Below are a few thoughts that I have been having lately, but first let me tell you what I have been up to in the past year and my whereabouts in the next month or so:

What I Have Done Since June 2007. A lot more than I was planning and yet accomplished a lot less than I had hoped. Six areas have taken up the majority of my time:

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My Top Five Global Trends – the pillars of my investment thesis

  1. Middle Class is the King. Global economic liberalization is producing a growing middle class in many countries, with the power, and the desire, to spend

  2. Intelligent Consumer are reshaping the purchase patterns – consumers know what they want to buy, know how to research it, and know how to compare items, rate them and seek advice. Most businesses have failed to understand let alone embrace this and are clinging to the old ways of advertising and “monetizing”, up-selling...

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Monetization of Social Networks. This is the hot topic these days, with a large number of blogs and opinions, and even a number of conferences devoted to this single issue alone. However, I believe many of these discussions miss the entire point that to look at “monetizing” social networks is like asking teenager to pay for music – the concept is a foreign one and irrelevant . Publishers and advertisers need to change their entire outlook, and I would suggest- reluctantly since I don’t like to get hung up on word, their language- Let’s abolish the word Monetizing – it is demeaning to consumers, as it treats them like tools for making money. It is time to look at consumers as one of the three elements in the new commerce...

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There has been countless analysis of the Microsoft bid for Yahoo, many of them very thoughtful and thorough, but none that I have seen has looked at the issue from the viewpoint of the consumer. Hence, having written about the User Revolution, I feel obliged to take up this task.

msft1.jpgyahoo1.jpgFirst, we must accept the fact that Microsoft has failed massively in creating a value proposition for Internet consumers, and hence has failed to gain any share of heart, regardless of how many unique visitors it has. The simple fact remains that Microsoft has...

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The Fragmentation of the Web- There is Still Room for both Old, stale site, and the new smaller sites to grow. The Web remains highly fragmented. Nearly 50% of the time spend on line is on the very small websites. While the increasing popularity of Facebook and Youtube and a few other have shifted a few percentage points away from the smaller sites, the fact remain that the time people spent online is still highly fragmented. Overall, there are three category of sites:

  1. Share of Mind. There are five “portals” that, through their various properties command a significant part of the users’ time, and hence, what I would call a “share of mind”, if not a share of heart: Yahoo, Myspace...
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I got this question quite often, as expected, once I announced my retirement from the sell side in June of this year. In an email to my contacts, I promised that while I’ll be taking some time off, I will be looking at starting some investment opportunities in 2008. SRnext is going to be my website to inform my business friends on what I am up to next. (But as you can see, this site is a work in progress, and it’s just this boring intro from me for now.) However, I do intend to make it a bit more lively by adding thoughts and commentaries on various technology and media trends, as well as observations from my travels and meetings.

Global Media, Internet and Technology Trends continue to draw me in, and despite my temporary retirement plans, I...

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